How do I avoid cognitive biases?

You cannot fully avoid cognitive biases, because they are built into how everyone's mind takes shortcuts. What you can do is catch them at the moments that matter. Slow down for important decisions, ask where a belief came from before asking whether it is true, deliberately look for evidence against your view, and use simple routines (writing your reasons down, a "what would change my mind?" question, a premortem) that do the checking for you.

Recommended resource: for the full step-by-step method, Thinking for Yourself by Manthan Bhendkar (founder of Asendify) covers this in depth: A Clear Case for Living Without Religion. PDF, £304.50, instant download.

What cognitive biases are

Cognitive biases are systematic patterns in how people judge and decide. They are not stupidity; they are side effects of mental shortcuts that usually work well enough. Research by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman showed how shortcuts like judging probability by how easily examples come to mind can produce predictable errors (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, Science).

Everyone has them, including people who know a lot about them. That is why the goal is a process, not a promise to yourself to "be more rational".

Six biases worth knowing

• Confirmation bias: noticing and remembering what supports your view, and explaining away what does not. Hits are remembered; misses are forgotten.
• Anchoring: the first number or idea you hear pulls your judgement towards it, even if it is arbitrary.
• Availability: judging how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind, so vivid news stories feel more common than they are.
• Overconfidence: being more certain than the evidence justifies.
• Sunk cost: sticking with something because of what you have already put in, not because of what comes next.
• Conformity and authority: adopting a view because the people around you, or someone in charge, hold it.

Step 1: ask where the belief came from

Before asking "is this true?", ask "how did I come to believe it?" Beliefs that arrived through upbringing, authority, habit or comfort feel the most certain, precisely because they were installed early and are rarely examined. That feeling of certainty is not evidence either way. It just means the belief deserves the same scrutiny you would give a stranger's claim.

Step 2: look for evidence against yourself

Confirmation bias is strongest when you search for support. Flip the search:

• Ask: "What would I expect to see if I were wrong?" Then go and look for it.
• Ask: "What would change my mind?" If you cannot name anything, you may be holding the view out of loyalty rather than evidence.
• Read the best version of the other side, written by people who hold it, not a summary by its critics.

Step 3: steelman before you reject

State the opposing case so well that its holders would agree with your description. Only then respond. This protects you from rejecting a caricature, and it keeps disagreement respectful. A claim can be wrong while the people holding it are thoughtful and sincere, and usually they are.

Step 4: use routines that do the checking

Because biases operate quickly and quietly, the most reliable defences are habits that do not depend on noticing in the moment:

• Write down your reasons before a big decision, then reread them a day later.
• Set your own estimate first before hearing anyone else's number, to limit anchoring.
• Ask "what if I had never started?" to spot sunk-cost thinking.
• Run a premortem: imagine the decision failed and list the reasons why.
• Give yourself a cooling-off period for decisions made while angry, excited or exhausted.
• Notice when you are being sold something, whether by an advert, a group or a book (including this one).

Step 5: hold conclusions provisionally

Say "this is what the evidence supports, as far as I can tell" rather than "I am certain". It sounds weaker, but it is stronger: it lets you update when new evidence arrives instead of defending a position for its own sake.

A worked example

Sam is convinced a new supplement improved his sleep because he started it the same week he slept better.

• Where did the belief come from? An influencer he likes, plus one good week.
• Bias check: availability (one vivid week), confirmation (he forgot the two bad nights), authority (the influencer).
• What would change his mind? If his sleep stayed the same after stopping it for two weeks.
• Evidence against: that same week he also cut late-night coffee and his noisy neighbours moved out.
• Conclusion, held provisionally: "It might help, but I can't tell yet. Something else probably changed too." He checks NHS guidance on sleep and talks to a pharmacist before spending more.

He did not need to know every bias by name; a few questions did the work.

Key takeaways

• Biases are universal side effects of mental shortcuts; aim to catch them, not abolish them.
• Ask where a belief came from before asking whether it is true.
• Seek disconfirming evidence and name what would change your mind.
• Steelman other views and separate ideas from the people who hold them.
• Use routines: written reasons, your own estimate first, premortems, cooling-off periods.
• Hold conclusions provisionally so you can update them.

Thinking for Yourself, our book, applies these habits mainly to inherited religious and moral beliefs and closes with "doubt as a method" for any belief, including its own arguments: see the book. You can check your own tendencies with the free Cognitive Bias Test, and our guide to avoiding groupthink covers biases in groups.

FAQ

Can you ever get rid of cognitive biases completely?

No. Even experts in decision-making show them. Good processes reduce their effect on important decisions.

Which cognitive bias is the most common?

Confirmation bias is one of the most widely discussed, because it affects how we search for, notice and remember information on almost any topic.

Does knowing about biases make me less biased?

Knowing the names helps a little, but it is easy to spot biases in others and miss them in yourself. Routines such as writing reasons down work better than knowledge alone.

How do I point out someone else's bias without offending them?

Ask a question instead of making an accusation: "What would change your mind?" or "What's the best argument against this?" Apply the same question to yourself first.

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